Market Watch writer Tim Mulvaney published an interesting piece following President Trump's campaign kickoff rally in Orlando the other day in which he outlined five reasons why the president will lose in 2020.
After reading his piece and thinking about his logic, I think he's pretty much on target, at least as things stand today. But the election is a long way away and as the old saying goes, "There's many a slip 'twixt the cup and the lip."
In other words, anything can happen, as we all know.
Nevertheless, to summarize Mulvaney's reasons, here are his key points:
1. Everybody has already made up their mind about Trump — and his numbers stink.
Trump's net approval rating is minus 8.5 percent in the RealClear Politics polling average, while Fivethirtyeight.com puts it at minus 10, with 53 percent disapproving, 43 percent approving and 4 percent undecided. That, says Mulvaney, is not likely to change. Either you like the guy or you don't, and nobody is changing their minds pro or con.
2. His state numbers are just as bad.
Mulvaney points out that in many states that Trump is counting on, the president is tanking. Michigan, for example, has his net approval at minus 22 and he hasn't been positive there for more than two years. In Wisconsin, he's minus 13;, Iowa, minus 12 and Pennsylvania, minus 7. Losing those four states will cost him the election, Mulvaney contends. In fact, he says 215 of Trump's 306 electoral votes could be "in play."
3. Trump isn't getting credit for the economy, and he won't.
"When the unemployment rate goes to 3.6 percent from 10 percent (as under Obama), the guy who came along at 4.7 percent doesn't get the credit. Moreover, wage and job growth are both slowing, Mulvaney notes, and Trump's tariff wars aren't helping the stock market, which he contends is rebounding currently largely because the Fed is hinting it will cut interest rates.
4. He'll keep screwing yup.
As Trump "meanders toward armed conflict with Iran," Mulvaney says he lacks the trust of the majority of Americans because "wartime leadership requires trust, not telling 10,796 lies in office" (per the Washington Post. The July 4th rally and tribute to himself at the Lincoln Memorial that Trump has planned will give Democrats plenty of fodder, as will his continued blundering and blustering with immigration along with a possible new effort to repeal the Affordable Care Act. Why he would do that is a mystery, since its popularity has gained despite GOP efforts to sabotage it. Oh right. It's called Obamacare, and Trump hates Obama. End of that story.
5. Hillary's not running -- neither is Hunter Biden.
Mulvaney contends that the reason Trump is president "is Clinton's e-mail scandalette." along with her family's history of "diving for dollars." But the leading Democratic candidates don't have such baggage. And while Trump tries for political hay because of former Vice President Joe Biden's son, Hunter's supposed business dealings, Mulvaney says "that dog won't, ahem, Hunter."
Thus, Mulvaney writes, "Enjoy Mar-a-Lago, Mr. President."
Hope he's right.
Note: My thanks to site Member and Subscriber Bob Friedman for forwarding Mulvaney's article to me. Suggestions for articles are always welcome.